Small-ticket finance in emerging markets

Viable small businesses and startups in emerging markets still can't raise the modest amounts of capital they need.

The fixed cost of underwriting a small deal, missing credit data, currency swings, rules that backfire, and thin exit markets all push lenders and investors toward bigger, safer ones. Guarantees, blended finance, and local-currency facilities exist to offset that, but these tools often go unused because their costs and complexities make them inaccessible to small and medium enterprises. The interesting question is what changes when underwriting, currency management, and guarantee reporting become cheap enough to automate.

I'm spending this year testing that question in conversations with lenders, founders, development finance institutions, and people who invest back home. If any of that is your world, I'd love to hear from you.

I wrote up what I've learned so far: Why the missing middle is still missing, and where it might finally move.